Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart
by Ian Ayres
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Book Summary Information
Author: Ian AyresEdition: Hardcover
Published: 2007-08-28
ISBN: 0553805401
Number of pages: 272
Publisher: Bantam
Book Reviews of Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart
Book Review: Entertaining, but far from super
Summary: 3 Stars
This is an easy and mostly entertaining read. The author uses many anecdotes to
persuade us that statistics can be a useful tool for decision making. Some of
the described applications use lots of data and multiple regression. Those are
easier to do now than they used to be, because more data is collected and kept.
Some are trivial. If your company hurts a customer, apologize. You might get
some ideas of thing to do that might help your organization. You will not get
any detailed help about how to implement the improvement, but there is a good
chance there is enough information that some systems person can figure out what
other skills are needed to make the idea work.
There is some discussion of limitations on the methods, and some warnings about
potential abuse, but not enough. Ayres seems to confuse correlation with causation.
He also frequently assumes the sample is representative of the population.
Even when trying to make the sample representative, it often is not. He also
assumes the answer is in the data. Sometimes it is not. Ayres reports a study
concluding widespread point shaving in college basketball because a distribution
at game end did not match the distribution five minutes earlier when a highly
favored team was ahead by about the spread. I have no opinion about the conclusion,
but the simpler explanation of the coach thinking it was late enough to safely
let the weaker players participate more was not considered.
Regression is a powerful tool, but it is easy to misuse. For an ongoing
survey of misuses, see junkfoodscience dot com, a blog. Many of the entries show
the flaws in statistical claims of medical trials. Also try stats dot org.
Summary of Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart
Why would a casino try and stop you from losing? How can a mathematical formula find your future spouse? Would you know if a statistical analysis blackballed you from a job you wanted?Today, number crunching affects your life in ways you might never imagine. In this lively and groundbreaking new book, economist Ian Ayres shows how today's best and brightest organizations are analyzing massive databases at lightening speed to provide greater insights into human behavior. They are the Super Crunchers. From internet sites like Google and Amazon that know your tastes better than you do, to a physician's diagnosis and your child's education, to boardrooms and government agencies, this new breed of decision makers are calling the shots. And they are delivering staggeringly accurate results. How can a football coach evaluate a player without ever seeing him play? Want to know whether the price of an airline ticket will go up or down before you buy? How can a formula outpredict wine experts in determining the best vintages? Super crunchers have the answers. In this brave new world of equation versus expertise, Ayres shows us the benefits and risks, who loses and who wins, and how super crunching can be used to help, not manipulate us.
Gone are the days of solely relying on intuition to make decisions. No businessperson, consumer, or student who wants to stay ahead of the curve should make another keystroke without reading Super Crunchers.
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