 |
Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy by Michael T. Klare
Book Summary InformationAuthor: Michael T. Klare Edition: Hardcover Audio: English (Original Language); English (Unknown); English (Published) Published: 2008-04-15 ISBN: 0805080643 Number of pages: 352 Publisher: Metropolitan Books
Book Reviews of Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of EnergyBook Review: Develop Tough Oil, believe in the Hydrogen Society, and avoid resource wars Summary: 2 Stars1. The International Energy Agency estimates a $5.1 trillion investment by 2030, for problematic fields in the Caspian Sea basin, the middle-east, and Siberia. Increased output will need to come from tough oil reserves.
2. New US oil production by 2030 looks promising. Thunder Horse production started in June 2008, producing 250,000 barrels of oil per day. The US consumes over 25 million bbl/day and exports over 340 million barrels/year. The Bakken oil reserve in Montana, North Dakota, and Southeastern Saskatchewan has an estimate 271 billion to 503 billion barrels of oil. North Dakota oil production will grow significantly. Pemex expects Chicontepec oilfied in Veracrus and Puebla states to reach peak production of 470,000 barrels/day by 2014. Ultra deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, Perdido will operate on the surface of 8,000 ft of water and produce as much as 130,000 barrels/day. It is very doubtful that peak oil has occurred.
3. Suppose consumption reached 100 million barrels per day, the greatest difficulty will be that oil prices drop because of oversupply, as production is destined to increase due to profits and shortages. Oil price controls will be forced to lift and remove and competition use technology and science to increase recoverable oil and bring those supplies too the market. Deep Hot biosphere suggests the earth has abundant resource of petroleum. Oil profits will drop and the oil business will become a marginal low PE business.
4. Cogeneration of nuclear energy electric generation pumping the hot steam into sand tar oil reserves, coal fire electric cool water and steam into oil shale extracting black liquid gold, and coal gasification ICGG will produce hydrogen, electricity, and gasoline; bringing cheap oil and gas back to the market. The financial and environmental costs of using synthetic fuels, tar sands, and shale oil are huge and the current price of oil makes these alternatives now possible. Tough oil will open a vast new supply and return the US into red exporter status.
5. The Saudis will want to produce 10-15 million barrels/day by 2025.
6. 50% of the current world oil production come from 116 giant fields producing more than a 100,000 barrels/day. Those in decline are Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, Cantarell in Mexico, and Burgan in Kuwait. Discover of new fields produces a self-defeating cycle. Why look for new discover of easy oil? Tough oil is the future.
7. By 2030, oil, coal, and natural are projected to provide a 87 percent of the world energy requirements. Oil production will need to rise by 42 percent, natural gas by 65 percent, and coal by 74 percent.
8. Japan has a large energy deficit. Japan has called on national firms to acquire overseas oil and gas reserves. In 2006, Tokyo adopted a New National Energy Strategy mandating that an ever-greater proportion of Japan's oil imports be supplied by Japanese energy firms. The oil volume in exploration and development by Japanese companies will be raised to around 40 percent by 2030. The move was designed to help Japanese firms compete with firms in China and India. This is a wasteful strategy. 2030, should be enough time for Japan to shift completely into a hydrogen society. Instead, of investing in new oil development, Japanese firms should invest into Black Light quantum power generation, hydrogen production, and millions of fuel cell migration devices. Nationalization continues to slow the conversion to a hydrogen society. Gas prices have reached a level where a transfer of technology is now justifiable.
9. National Owed Corporations hold large reserves: Saudi Aramco (264 bbl), National Iranian Oil (137.5 bbl), Iraq National Oil (115 bbl), Kuwait Petroleum Corp ( 101.5 bbl), Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (92.2 bbl), Petroleos de Venezuela (80 bbl), National Oil Corp of Libya (41 bbl), Nigerian National Petroleum (36.2 bbl), Lukoil (16.1 bbl), Qatar Petroleum (15.2 bbl), Gazprom (13.8 bbl), Pemex (12.2 bbl) , China National Petroleum Corp (115. bbl), and Chevron (8 bbl). The large Middle Eastern, National Owned companies control the most large oil reserves. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, British Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell, and TotalFinaElf are overshadowed by NOCs.
10. In 2007, Abu Dhabi Investment authority invest $7.5 billion in Citigroup. Abu Dhabi has made significant investments in Advance Micro Devices (AMD).
11. Coal fire plants and nuclear plants will provide electricity supply meeting 2030 requirements. Chinese leader show a strong preference for coal fire plants and nuclear. China coal consumption will raise 130 percent by 2030 and account for half of the world consumption.
12. BP believes there exists 909 billion metric tons of coal in the world. US has 246 billion tons, Russia (157 billion), China (114 billion), India (92 billion), and Australia (78 billion) with important reserves in South Africa, Kazahstan, and Ukraine. China is the largest consumer of coal, 38 percent followed by the US at 18.4 percent.
13. The IEA expect China to invest $1.5 trillion in transmission and distribution of power by 2030. China will spend, $2.74 trillion invested in power development , by 2030. Included are new hydro projects, quads of Solar energy generation, and gigawatt wind power generation.
14. 2030, China's projected total power generation of 8472 Trillion watts hours will mean that China will equal the production of the US and European Union combined.
15. China is driving a world commodity boom between 1995-2005: aluminum - 31.9 million tons; iron production - 1.5 billion tons, copper - 16.6 million tons. Deutsche Bank said, "The surge in world demand has contributed to one of the most durable and powerful rallies in industrial metal prices in history." In 2006, China Machine-building international Corp agreed to build three coal fire plants in Zimbabwe in return for Chromium and other minerals. In return for a $5 billion reconstruction and development loan to Congo, China will gain exclusive access to Congo copper, cobalt, and nickel. China will develop infrastructure in Aynak Afghanistan to extract copper.
16. A war over resources control causes economic hyperinflation and impoverishment. Contention over limited resource leads to war. Unlimited energy dissolves the contention for resource and creates a proliferation of productivity. Klares conclusions that resources are limited and war is inevitable are not believable.
Summary of Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of EnergyFrom the author of the now-classic Resource Wars, an indispensable account of how the world's diminishing sources of energy are radically changing the international balance of power ? Recently, an unprecedented Chinese attempt to acquire the major American energy firm Unocal was blocked by Congress amidst hysterical warnings of a Communist threat. But the political grandstanding missed a larger point: the takeover bid was a harbinger of a new structure of world power, based not on market forces or on arms and armies but on the possession of vital natural resources. ? Surveying the energy-driven dynamic that is reconfiguring the international landscape, Michael Klare, the preeminent expert on resource geopolitics, forecasts a future of surprising new alliances and explosive danger. World leaders are now facing the stark recognition that all materials vital for the functioning of modern industrial societies (not just oil and natural gas but uranium, coal, copper, and others) are finite and being depleted at an ever-accelerating rate. As a result, governments rather than corporations are increasingly spearheading the pursuit of resources. In a radically altered world- where Russia is transformed from battered Cold War loser to arrogant broker of Eurasian energy, and the United States is forced to compete with the emerging "Chindia" juggernaut-the only route to survival on a shrinking planet, Klare shows, lies through international cooperation.
|
 |