Open Society: Reforming Global Capitalism
by George Soros
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Book Summary Information
Author: George SorosEdition: Hardcover
Audio: English (Unknown); English (Original Language); English (Published)
Published: 2000-01-01
ISBN: 1586480197
Number of pages: 400
Publisher: PublicAffairs
Book Reviews of Open Society: Reforming Global Capitalism
Book Review: Economic theory has misrepresented how markets behave
Summary: 5 Stars
Reflexivity, is the two way interaction between thinking and reality. Reality is not separate from thinking. Reflexivity is acceptance that there is a reality and we are a part of that reality. Reflexity, strength of its statement is contingent on their impact.
Fallibility means there is a lack of correspondence between the participants thinking and the actual state of affairs. When one recognizes a fallible belief, he can correct for error, this is another name for learning. All human designs are bound to be defective. In finance the value of a hypothesis is measured in money. Money accumulation measures the degrees of success in a belief system and the exploitation of observed fallacy. No fertile fallacy is likely to last forever and eventually, it will be replaced with a new fallacy that will occupy people's imagination. There are two ways to deal with deficient design, one, to look for an escape and two, to look for improvement. Marxist philosophy and economics is not scientific provable.
Karl Popper's theory of scientific method involves predicting a specific phenomena then testing and explaining the phenomena. Therefore, prediction and explanation are reversible. Testing is comparing the initial and final conditions and establishing whether they conform to the hypothesis. One should accept the hypothesis provisionally, until is can be falsified. This approach allows the hypothesis to provide predictions and explanations without insisting on verification. The predictions can be either deterministic or probabilistic. However, generalizations made about reflexive events cannot be tested.
Equilibrium in supply and demand means there is exists no unsatisfied sellers and buyers. Economics is the study of the relationship between supply and demand, not the conditions. All markets have radical fallibility and are liable to be flawed. Economic theory has misrepresented how markets behave. The conditions of supply and demand are unknowable because financial markets are discounting the future contingent on how they discount the present.
Rational expectations of price are based on fundamentals, such as, future earnings, dividend, and the prospect of future transactions. Therefore, it would be irrational for an investor to believe they can outperform the market.
Self-interest is the best explanation why free markets succeed. Different people work with different bias. A sequence of events occurs and these events affect a person's bias. Rational expectations philosophy contents that markets are always right. However, in reality financial markets are almost always wrong, but have the ability to validate them selves to a point. Divergence from outcomes and expectations can be taken as bias.
For example, credit expansion and contraction are followed by a boom or bust, in the business cycle. Collateral value depends on the amount of money the bank is willing to lend. Investors had sought fast per-share growth rates and certain companies had exploited this bias using their high-priced shares to acquire companies with lower multiple of earnings and producing higher shares and growth earning increases, for which, the investors appreciated. These companies become bestowed with higher P/E multiples far from the mean and reality cannot sustain these expectations.
The turning point formed because there were size limits and the company could not sustain momentum. Investors got carried away with expectations. The moment of truth occurred when reality could not support investor expectation. People only increased their pain by continuing too play the game when they, themselves no long believed, hoping a greater fool would arrive and bail them out. The crossover point would be followed by a downward trend and eventual crash. Markets are in constant dis-equilibrium: Prices do not clear the market and there are dissatisfied buyers and sellers in the wings, who could not execute order at the last sell or could not make up their minds.
1972, Citibank enters the market and starts using capital to simulate stock prices, raise additional capital, and made purchase acquisitions. 1973, Oil crisis causes a boom and swing into dis-equilibrium. 1982, radical change caused the international banking crisis. 1989, the Soviet empire collapsed and robber capitalism emerged, as, management tool control of companies and private property by cheating workers of vouchers and buying up companies cheap. State to Private property distribution became the problem of a free for all. The Russian central government was unable to collect taxes.
1998, IMF negotiates with Russia, a $22.5 billion rescue plan. Emerging market Russia's stock had fallen 48% in four weeks. Prior too the bailout, Russia had $11 billion in hard currency in its reserves, but this was not enough to cover debts come due. The USSR was on the verge of breaking up and building a free-market system in the stead. Peoples exchanging their rubles for dollars had depleted the central bank by $2.4 billion. Russia was too big and too nuclear to fail and IMF bailout mandated and required. The IMF role in the financial intervention of Russia would be too help Russia make the transition into a free-market. Russia lacked many of the components needed in a free-market: viable commercial banks, stocks and bond markets, and laws to protect private property and enforce contracts. The IMF used "shock tactic" to dismantle communist command and control hierarchy and liberalizing price and markets. Soon after shock tactic private retail shops opened and imports of foreign goods increased. Bloated budget deficits caused an explosive rise in Russian money supply and in 1993, inflation topped 843% and 224% in 1994. 1995, Russian reforms acquired a $6.8 billion IMF loan aimed primarily to tame inflation and inflation subsided. The ruble was pegged too the dollar ending a slide in currency value. The next stage of reform was modern banking. By 1997, inflation was 11 %, the ruble stable, communism vanquished, and portfolio investor were infusing money into Russia. Portfolio investment surged to $45.6 billion. Russia economy looked health, but its heavy dependence on short term borrowing subjected it to heavy costs. Russia had to borrow $1 billion each week by selling GKO to replace the maturing ones with increase costs of 25%. The
Summary of Open Society: Reforming Global Capitalism
Lauded by the New York Times as "brilliant and persuasive", and published in more than thirty-five foreign editions, George Soros's The Crisis of Global Capitalism became an instant classic. A must read for anyone concerned with the complex market forces that rule our global economy and that have thrust us into a state of financial flux and international economic insecurity.Now Soros takes a whole new look at the arguments he made in that book, incorporating the very latest in global economic and political developments. He shows how the recovery following the economic meltdown of 1998 may have been a false dawn, leaving us in a much more precarious position than we realize. He also explores surprising connections between events like the war in Kosovo and the economic wealth of nations. And he offers new insights into the fates of Russia, Asia, Europe and the United States.
Demonstrating that our still unquestioning faith in market forces blinds us to crucial economic instabilities, Open Society provides an inspiring vision of how to fix the flaws in the system - suggestions that have already influenced leaders at the IMF, the World Bank, and in many national governments.
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