Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage
by Kenneth S. Deffeyes
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Book Summary Information
Author: Kenneth S. DeffeyesEdition: Paperback
Published: 2003-08-11
ISBN: 0691116253
Number of pages: 224
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Book Reviews of Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage
Book Review: SUVs Coming Home to Roost
Summary: 1 Stars
So you went to the pump today and you'd like to complain about the price of gasoline? In Massachusetts it was $4.03/gal (82 euro cents/L). [In Belgium they're laughing at our complaints since they paid $9.18/gal!] We're running out of oil and need new forms of energy. In fact, we've known about it for 30 years. I know we haven't done anything about it because we've been to involved with things of vital national interest (Whitewater, American Idol, blaming high unemployment on women in the workforce, finding ways so that the ultra-rich can leave all of their money to their no account kids, making ketchup a vegetable in poor kids' lunches, defending states' rights - unless it involves same sex marriage, Survivor, making sure today's immigrants don't get the same chances your great-grandparents did, defending South Carolina and Mississippi's right to continue flying symbols of rebellion against the United States, how to ignore black people stranded in a hurricane, how to prevent soldiers from getting adequate health care or a college education, instant replay, flag burning, sex in the Oval Office and, finally, how best to undermine national security: "by outing CIA agents or by ignoring memos stating that the US will be attacked? Oh, we'll just do both").
Now real American politicians realize these are the things most Americans want; but among the things that don't affect their lives, gas prices is near the top of that second tier. Gas prices - like all other prices - are ruled by the law of supply and demand. Demand has increased in recent years as nations like China grow and need more energy. Further, Americans - forgetting the mileage on their Chevy Caprice during the Oil Embargo - are insistent on driving gas-guzzling SUVs that get 13 mpg (18.1L/100km).
Supply, meanwhile, is decreasing. US reserves are being used faster than new discovery (and, have been since the early 70s). There was a decrease in supply after Hurricane Katrina when gas refineries were damaged. Further, in the nation with the second largest oil reserves, the Coalition of the Willing decided to expand the American Empire. While that war was officially declared over in May 2003, for some reason supplies from Iraq are still slow to recover.
But, the largest constraint on supply is its very finiteness. There are only 2.1 trillion or so barrels of oil in the world and we've used about half of them. In the 1970s, geologists and economists determined that the world oil production would peak in the early 2000s. In this work, Deffeyes argues that it will be in 2004 (the book was written in 2001). After that the production will decrease and price increase - thank the gods that didn't happen.
Despite its probable correctness, this book is awful! Deffeyes spends most of the book showing how oil goes from undiscovered to discovered to drilled to recovered. Then he writes a brief chapter in which he determines by his own math when peak oil will happen. Most of it is academic arguments over exact dates between 2004 and 2009 and whether to use a normal bell curve or a logistic bell curve. He then stymies alternative fuels as too far into the future and says we'll just have to live with high-energy prices for ten years. If you really want to know about Hubbert's peak and oil production read the wikipedia article "Peak Oil"; its way more informative!
Summary of Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage
Geophysicist M. King Hubbert predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s. Though roundly criticized by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1970.
In this revised and updated edition reflecting the latest information on the world supply of oil, Kenneth Deffeyes uses Hubbert's methods to find that world oil production will peak in this decade--and there isn't anything we can do to stop it. While long-term solutions exist in the form of conservation and alternative energy sources, they probably cannot--and almost certainly will not--be enacted in time to evade a short-term catastrophe.
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