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Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming (Vintage) by Bjorn Lomborg
Book Summary InformationAuthor: Bjorn Lomborg Edition: Paperback Audio: English (Unknown); English (Original Language); English (Published) Published: 2008-08-12 ISBN: 030738652X Number of pages: 272 Publisher: Vintage
Book Reviews of Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming (Vintage)Book Review: A welcome effort to use economic logic in the climate change debate Summary: 5 Stars
The author of this book, Bjorn Lomberg, is one of the most vilified figures in world science. He is a Danish social scientist; he has no expertise in the physical sciences His first book, The Skeptical Environmentalist, and this book, have been greeted with extremely intense hostility by the advocates of the theory that humanity is causing catastrophic global warming. Lomberg was subjected to a formal legal proceeding in Denmark by some governmental panel charged with maintaining scientific truth. There are entire web sites devoted to attacking every single page of every one of his books. According to these critics, he is an evil denier, who deliberately and with malice aforethought distorts and lies about the self-evident truths proclaimed by Al Gore.
After all of this build-up, this book is rather surprising. Never once does Lomberg challenge the IPCC case for global warming. Instead, he takes the IPCC global warming argument at face value. He basically says, assume that it is all true. (He does not even say that; he appears to believe that it is all true.) Assuming that it is all true, he says, lets look at the costs of the damage that global warming will do, and lets compare that cost to the cost of stopping it. Basically, he says, lets do an economic cost-benefit analysis. He takes every specific prediction of harm that global warming will do, and quantifies the damage in dollar terms. He then looks at the costs and benefits of dealing with the problem via the Kyoto Treaty approach, as opposed to alternative approaches. For example, it is often said that global warming will cause increased hurricanes, such as Katrina. He assumes that is true. He then looks at the cost of the damage caused by the hurricanes, the cost and benefit of the Kyoto approach and the cost and benefit of alternative approaches, such as building better sea walls, upgrading building codes in hurricane prone areas and the like.
His basic conclusion is starkly simple. The Kyoto Treaty approach will be vastly expensive and do very little good. All of the problems identified by the IPCC can be far more effectively solved by putting the money into different approaches. His fundamental conclusion is that Kyoto will slow down economic growth, and make future society less wealthy and less able to handle problems. If we let growth go forward, on the other hand, the future will be more wealthy and better able to adjust to a variety of problems.
I have no personal knowledge about any of the particulars cited by Lomberg. I do not know, for example, what the most cost-effective way would be to fight malaria. (This is an issue, because one of the cited harms of global warming is more malaria.) I am willing to bet that, in each and every case, one could argue with Lomberg's numbers. In matters of this sort, experts usually disagree with each other to some degree.
What I think is not arguable, however, is Lomberg's whole approach. He basically says that humanity has scarce resources. We cannot solve every single problem, simultaneously. Thus, he says we should use cost-benefit logic, to set priorities. He basically argues in favor of using reason to approach the problem.
I have read some of Lomberg's critics. I read some of the negative reviews here. They all argue, in different ways, against the use of reason in this area. One approach is to say that you cannot quantify human life and environmental purity. Because global warming threatens life and threatens the planet, says this approach, it is WRONG to put any numbers on it! After all, as Gore tells us, this is a MORAL issue. Another approach is to say that Lomberg does not take into account what if Earth is a tipping point, which, if we cross, will lead to everything getting irrerversbibly worse. What if the IPCC predictions are not bad enough? What if everything is much, much, much worse? Since there is a chance of this, however, slight shouldn't we drop all other problems and focus all human energy on this one, supreme, overriding problem?
Lomberg's critics, in short, counter his use of reason with emotion and hysteria. They basically argue that we should all be so afraid that we never try to use logic and reason. What is kind of funny about all of this is that Lomberg is actually a moderate. He does not question the IPCC's science. He simply applies logic to their conclusions. As we now know, there is plenty of reason to question the IPCC's science. But, as the reaction to Lomberg shows, the pro-IPCC side has never specialized in reason. They reached a conclusion, and they have tried to stampede the world into going along by promoting extreme fear and terror. It is past time to reject this approach and to embrace reason. Lomberg's book is a huge step in the right direction.
Summary of Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming (Vintage)Bjorn Lomborg argues that many of the elaborate and staggeringly expensive actions now being considered to meet the challenges of global warming ultimately will have little impact on the world?s temperature. He suggests that rather than focusing on ineffective solutions that will cost us trillions of dollars over the coming decades, we should be looking for smarter, more cost-effective approaches (such as massively increasing our commitment to green energy R&D) that will allow us to deal not only with climate change but also with other pressing global concerns, such as malaria and HIV/AIDS. And he considers why and how this debate has fostered an atmosphere in which dissenters are immediately demonized. Amazon.com Guest Reviewer: Michael Crichton In his many science-themed bestsellers--including The Andromeda Strain, Jurassic Park, Prey, and most recently, Next--Michael Crichton has covered everything from genetically engineered dinosaurs to time travel to nantechnology run amok. Having cast his own views on the dangers and hysteria surrounding global warming with State of Fear, he turns his pen toward the often controversial Bjørn Lomborg and his latest book, Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming.
Bjørn Lomborg is the best-informed and most humane advocate for environmental change in the world today. In contrast to other figures that promote a single issue while ignoring others, Lomborg views the globe as a whole, studies all the problems we face, ranks them, and determines how best, and in what order, we should address them. His first book, The Skeptical Environmentalist, established the importance of a fact-based approach. With later books, Global Crises, Global Solutions and How to Spend $50 Billion to Make the World a Better Place, this mild-mannered Danish statistician has steadily gained new converts. Not surprisingly, Time Magazine named him one of the 100 most influential people in the world. Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming will further enhance Lomborg?s reputation for global analysis and thoughtful response. For anyone who wants an overview of the global warming debate from an objective source, this brief text is a perfect place to start. Lomborg is only interested in real problems, and he has no patience with media fear-mongering; he begins by dispatching the myth of the endangered polar bears, showing that this Disneyesque cartoon has no relevance to the real world where polar bear populations are in fact increasing. Lomborg considers the issue in detail, citing sources from Al Gore to the World Wildlife Fund, then demonstrating that polar bear populations have actually increased five fold since the 1960s. Lomborg then works his way through the concerns we hear so much about: higher temperatures, heat deaths, species extinctions, the cost of cutting carbon, the technology to do it. Lomborg believes firmly in climate change--despite his critics, he's no denier--but his fact-based approach, grounded in economic analyses, leads him again and again to a different view. He reviews published estimates of the cost of climate change, and the cost of addressing it, and concludes that "we actually end up paying more for a partial solution than the cost of the entire problem. That is a bad deal." In some of the most disturbing chapters, Lomborg recounts what leading climate figures have said about anyone who questions the orthodoxy, thus demonstrating the illiberal, antidemocratic tone of the current debate. Lomborg himself takes the larger view, explaining in detail why the tone of hysteria is inappropriate to addressing the problems we face. In the end, Lomborg?s concerns embrace the planet. He contrasts our concern for climate with other concerns such as HIV/AIDS, malnutrition, and providing clean water to the world. In the end, his ability to put climate in a global perspective is perhaps the book?s greatest value. Lomborg and Cool It are our best guides to our shared environmental future. --Michael Crichton (photo credit: Jonathan Exley)
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